Published Research

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Focus on Ohio’s Future is committed to reporting on the economic impact of Ohio’s retail sector. We occasionally release reports meant to provide a greater understanding of retail’s place in Ohio’s overall economic environment. Below are the most recent reports published to date.

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If you have an idea for a research project relevant to Ohio’s retail, distribution or wholesale sectors, please feel free to contact us.


2016 Holiday Sales Forecast

Published:

November, 2016

Abstract:

Overall holiday spending is expected to be bolstered by consumer confidence, with memories of the recent recessions fading amidst modest employment and earnings growth. In addition to higher volumes of digital and online purchases, greater demand for experience and entertainment gifts is anticipated to moderate holiday retail spending. The National retail Federation and PricewaterhouseCoopers both note that brick-and-mortar retailers may not capture all of the gains forecasted for retail spending as a whole due to these sources of competition. While the presidential election has generated questions about the future performance of the economy, it is unclear if the outcome will be more or less positive for spending
overall.

This report was prepared for Focus on Ohio’s Future by the Economics Center of the University of Cincinnati.

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2016 Economic Analysis on the Effects Of Back-to-School Sales Tax Holiday in Ohio

Published:

February, 2016

Abstract:

In 2015, 18 states provided a sales tax holiday. In most of these states, clothing, footwear, and school supplies were exempt from sales tax for a short time at the end of summer, during what is traditionally referred to as the back-to-school shopping season. Proponents of these tax holidays believe that sales tax holidays benefit consumers and retailers alike. They contend that while consumers save money due to a reduced tax burden, retailers benefit from increase in traffic to their stores thereby expanding economic activity. They also claim that if nearby states offer a sales tax holiday, a state without a tax holiday misses out on business when its residents leave the state to purchase tax exempt items. Opponents argue that states lose valuable tax revenue when otherwise-taxable items are exempt from the sales tax, even for a short amount of time. Focus on Ohio’s Future engaged the Economics Center to study these claims and estimate the impact of the back-to-school sales tax holiday that occurred in the state of Ohio in August 2015.

This report was prepared for Focus on Ohio’s Future by the Economics Center of the University of Cincinnati.

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2015 Holiday Forecast of Ohio Retail Spending

Published:

November, 2015

Abstract:

Cumulative retail sales from January to July in Ohio were up by 3%. However, in the most recent month,
the year over year sales increase was 4.2%. Under the Economics Center’s forecasting model, the total
holiday retail spending is expected to increase by 4.2%. This estimate takes into account not only
recent sales data, but it also includes measures of employment, wages, consumer confidence, consumer
debt, gas prices, and US retail sales.

This report was prepared for Focus on Ohio’s Future by the Economics Center of the University of Cincinnati.

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2014 Holiday Forecast of Ohio Retail Spending

Published:

November, 2014

Abstract:

The Economics Center projects a 4.5 percent increase in Ohio retail spending for November and December of this year, relative to last year. The Economics Center’s forecast for the State of Ohio is slightly higher than the National Retail Federation’s national forecast of 4.1 percent. Recent rallies in consumer confidence have contributed to this higher forecast, as has stronger growth in the State of Ohio. Internet shopping continues to be a strong component of retail sales. Among consumers, 45 percent expect to purchase items online this holiday season while 44 percent expect to shop at discount/value department stores. Retail sales in Ohio’s three largest MSAs are all expected to increase substantially this holiday season, relative to last year, and account for more than half of the State’s total retail sales.

This report was prepared for Focus on Ohio’s Future by the Economics Center of the University of Cincinnati.

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Holiday Forecast of Ohio Retail Spending

Published:

November, 2013

Abstract:

The Economics Center projects a 3.5% increase in retail spending in November and December 2013 in Ohio, compared to 2012.The total retail spending for November and December 2013 will be $14.90 billion, an increase of $503.50 million from 2012. At the beginning of October, the National Retail Federation is predicting a national increase of 3.9 percent in holiday sales.2 Since that forecast however, consumer confidence has declined and private payroll gains have slowed. Based on a recent survey of consumers, the NRF also found that consumers expect to spend less this year on gift giving compared to last year.

This report was prepared for Focus on Ohio’s Future by the Economics Center of the University of Cincinnati.

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Economic Analysis on the Potential Effects of a Sales Tax Holiday in Ohio

Published:

August, 2013

Abstract:

During 2012, 18 states provided a sales tax holiday. Clothing, footwear, and school supplies were exempt from sales tax for a short period of time during back-to-school shopping season. Proponents of the sales tax holiday believe both consumers and retailers benefit from the reduced tax burden. Opponents argue that states lose valuable tax revenues by instituting a tax holiday. FOOF’s study reveals that if Ohio were to institute a sales tax holiday, it would not have significant impact.

This report was prepared for Focus on Ohio’s Future by the Economics Center of the University of Cincinnati.

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2012 Holiday Forecast of Ohio Retail Spending

Published:

November 2012

Abstract:

Holiday spending in Ohio is projected to increase 4.2% in 2012 over 2011 spending.  Higher consumer confidence, increases in employment, reductions in consumer debt and overall U.S. retail spending are contributors to the projected increase.  This report was prepared for Focus on Ohio’s Future by the Economics Center of the University of Cincinnati.

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2011 Impacts of E-Commerce on Holiday Spending Report

Published:

December  2011

Abstract:

In the current economic climate, consumer spending has received much attention as an important driver of the recovery. Unfortunately, many consumers continue to be reluctant to spend. This reluctance has been influenced by many things, including unemployment concerns. The holiday retail spending season has typically been considered not only the final word in performance of the year gone by, but also something of a bellwether for the year to come. As such, holiday retail spending has received additional attention in the past few years.

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Economic Analysis Of Tax Revenue From E-Commerce In Ohio Report

Published:

October  2011

Abstract:

Currently, consumers often receive less information about the taxes they owe for online purchases than they do for store purchases. The practicality of assigning responsibility for sales tax collection to internet retailers rather than to consumers has certainly increased since the early days of the internet. Our findings indicate that applying the more efficient tax collection method that is used for store purchases would provide substantial revenue to the state without raising tax rates.

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2010 Holiday Spending Report

Published:

November  2010

Abstract:

Holiday spending in Ohio will increase at a higher rate than the national average. Those are the findings of “Holiday Sales Forecast,” a report prepared for Focus On Ohio’s Future by the Economics Center at the University of Cincinnati.

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